Iran has Trump over a barrel (pun intended) by blocking the movement of shipping. A simple tactic with a stunning result. How did US strategists fail to anticipate such a move? An attrition war will make us all suffer.
Given Trump says he had no idea Isreal were going to bomb an Iranian gas facility, who is in charge of this war? He’s not much of a “Commander-in-Chief”.
1. Unless the Iranians rise up and thow out the regime, however, hazardous that might be, the US/Israeli assault cannot continue indefinitely. A line will have to be drawn. Boots on the ground mean they're in the swamp and should be a no-no.
“US needs to stop looking down its nose at Ukrainian counter-drone technology and experience”.
Absolutely 💯. Any incursion by US troops into Iran will be decimated without the use of significant numbers of Ukrainian anti-drone drones and the use of experienced Ukrainian operators. They can also aid offensive operations.
Unfortunately it appears Trump is dismissive of Ukrainian expertise.
Bullshit. Fake war to usher in economic crisis, rationing, digital ids and cbdcs. Agenda 2030. The great reset. iran was part of the covid scam as were russia and china. Keep ignoring that.
God help us, the conspiracists have come up with some weird interpretation of what is clearly no more than an act of hubristic idiocy. I guess the guy will have thoughts on 15 minute cities and the WEF, too. Occam’s razor: Trump is a dumb, arrogant fool who was persuaded to do something dumb and arrogant that has blown up in his face. End of.
go get another booster clown. Trump, the self labeled father of the injections, is not quite as stupid as you clown as he didn't take any of the poisonous injections. Your clock is ticking dumb ass. Hopefully long lastjng cancer before a painful death for you. You are way too stupid to deserve death by a hearth attack.
That is why you are an idiot. First of all, not everyone here is an American. They cant vote for trump. Second of all, I despise that motherfucker even more than I despise stupid idiots like you. You are just stupid. He is evil.
It’s only losing control if the US loses the will to keep depleting Iran’s puny capabilities over time. The idea that they can win this war with small amounts of drones and missiles should be laughable.
They likely will win this war with just a small number of drones and missiles. They have the ability for mutually assured destruction. We can bomb Iran forever. They can easily light the oil fields on fire and blow up the desalination plants. We will not be able to open the strait. Just geography.
It is informative to consider the impact the Houthi had and the difficulties in dealing with that; compared with significantly greater capabilities of Iran (Houthi sponsors and suppliers) and the geographical aspects of the sea transit.
Absolutely right. One of the future escalation points is likely the Houthi’s closing Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea. That would choke off a large amount of Saudi‘s 7m bypass pipeline.
I don’t mean we can’t land troops for a short period. I mean we cannot force the strait open. We cannot make it safe enough for commercial traffic. Governments could requisition ships and staff them with navy personnel, but that’s a suicide mission.
Are you saying, and this seems plausible, that even very sporadic drone and missile attacks are enough to close the strait and that disrupting them would essentially require a takeover of the entire country?
That’s exactly what I’m saying. We cannot make it safe enough for private commerce. We are fighting a military war. They are fighting an economic war. I should also say that the entire infrastructure of the Middle East is probably the most vulnerable in the world. Iran needs very little to wreck all of it.
And once the desalination plants on the Saudi/ UAE/ Bahrain etc sides go, those places are uninhabitable in weeks. People should think about that ahead of “bomb Iran to the Stone Age” - if that point is reached, what does a theocracy that believes in the ultimate clash of sect and civilisations have to lose? I suspect the whole assassination ploy has already changed thinking in many places. Certainly, if the Iranian regime survives, I’d not give long odds on multiple politicians in the West making it to retirement.
Worth remembering that in Vietnam the VC didn’t win a single battle but won the war. Also that Iran has been preparing for this asymmetric warfare for 45 years or more.
“In much the same way Egypt was the last country Britain faced as a superpower, so too do I think Iran will be the last one we face as number one.”
I was able to get an essay from a drone operator at Holloman about the present state of things (of course, more a meditation than actual policy details.)
It seems that from the start that US and Israeli objectives are quite different.
The USA wanted to cow the regime and give it a bloody nose, whereas Israel is intent on causing as much damage as it possibly can. There was already a strong suggestion that Israel had precipitated the start of hostilities and their willingness to target oil infrastructure, civil residential areas, ancient monuments and cities points to some very ugly incidents to come.
The Israelis consider the situation existential. They are probably right. The problem is either they get rid of Iran or they accelerated the existential moment.
Seriously? This screed sounds more like wishful thinking than actual reality or analysis.
Dude, the president of Iran wants to quit. There is no one left except the IRGC and the basji who are being decimated daily through tips called in by ordinary Iranians. The supreme ayatollah is MIA with the only proof of life being a picture stuck on a cardboard box. The “fortified” weaponry along the coast was bunker busted all to hell.
But hey, this mark urban is not only a journalist, he’s an editor. Some chops there.
Oh and remember how two loooong days ago, the Europeans said no, nein, non to helping open the strait of Hormuz which was closed down mostly because of the English insurance companies? Not our war. Not our concern.
Well two looooong days later comes this.
Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan said on March 19 that they are prepared to help ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping lane blocked by Iran that U.S. President Donald Trump has asked allies to assist with opening.
I wonder why. Oh, could it be their NATO freebies from the US might be slipping away? Oh Maybe it’s because they stand to need oil from that area while the US is energy Self reliant?
I'm not sure you should be accusing anyone else of 'wishful thinking' while posting such nonsense.
We have seen from Serbia to Afghanistan via Iraq and Somalia that an air campaign alone simply cannot flush out a deeply embedded regime and worse, it tends embed them even deeper and make repression of the population easier.
“We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict. We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves. We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs.
Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries. We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security.”
It’ll be lucky to make it through Hormuz, then it’ll be sitting in a lake (the Gulf) that is a killing ground (cf the Russian Black Sea fleet) and, if it manages to reach Kharg, it’ll be offloading marines onto an island/ beachhead that will be under continuous observation and well within a kill zone. Oh, and supply lines will be pretty tricksy as well.
The islands on the North side of the Strait sound more possible, but they will also be a potential bloodbath on the ground. Bear in mind, in both cases, you need to get the landing ships close enough to get the troops ashore. Paratroops ahead of time can help suppress but that’s very risky in real set piece wars where ground resistance exists - see Crete in WWII for the Germans, Operation Market Garden (“Bridge Too Far”) for the Allies in WWII and Hostomel for the Russians just recently - and the resistance there was ad hoc, and pretty light weight.
Iran has Trump over a barrel (pun intended) by blocking the movement of shipping. A simple tactic with a stunning result. How did US strategists fail to anticipate such a move? An attrition war will make us all suffer.
Trump got over confident because of Venezuela and dismissed Russia-Ukraine ongoing conflict as the failure of lesser leaders.
Exactly
Excellent, Mark. Do you believe the Royal Navy will send the new autonomous mine-hunting drones to help clear the strait, given its air portability?
Given Trump says he had no idea Isreal were going to bomb an Iranian gas facility, who is in charge of this war? He’s not much of a “Commander-in-Chief”.
Two things:
1. Unless the Iranians rise up and thow out the regime, however, hazardous that might be, the US/Israeli assault cannot continue indefinitely. A line will have to be drawn. Boots on the ground mean they're in the swamp and should be a no-no.
2. US needs to stop looking down its nose at Ukrainian counter-drone technology and experience. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/20/trump-iran-ukraine-russia-drone-warfare/
“US needs to stop looking down its nose at Ukrainian counter-drone technology and experience”.
Absolutely 💯. Any incursion by US troops into Iran will be decimated without the use of significant numbers of Ukrainian anti-drone drones and the use of experienced Ukrainian operators. They can also aid offensive operations.
Unfortunately it appears Trump is dismissive of Ukrainian expertise.
Bullshit. Fake war to usher in economic crisis, rationing, digital ids and cbdcs. Agenda 2030. The great reset. iran was part of the covid scam as were russia and china. Keep ignoring that.
God help us, the conspiracists have come up with some weird interpretation of what is clearly no more than an act of hubristic idiocy. I guess the guy will have thoughts on 15 minute cities and the WEF, too. Occam’s razor: Trump is a dumb, arrogant fool who was persuaded to do something dumb and arrogant that has blown up in his face. End of.
:))) stuck my razor up your stupid ass.
https://nypost.com/2026/03/19/us-news/idaho-mayor-rick-hogaboam-47-dies-after-collapsing-mid-speech-during-town-hall/
go get another booster clown. Trump, the self labeled father of the injections, is not quite as stupid as you clown as he didn't take any of the poisonous injections. Your clock is ticking dumb ass. Hopefully long lastjng cancer before a painful death for you. You are way too stupid to deserve death by a hearth attack.
I’m willing to bet that if you voted, you backed trump. Fooool. Ingenue. What comes around etc … and now it’s bitten you in your sorry ass.
That is why you are an idiot. First of all, not everyone here is an American. They cant vote for trump. Second of all, I despise that motherfucker even more than I despise stupid idiots like you. You are just stupid. He is evil.
Well, at least you’ve got that one thing right. He is evil.
Actually, that's the only thing you got right. But this conversation is over you moronic over injected sheep. Go get another booster. Chop chop.
Can someone tell Hegseth & Trump because they’re clearly in denial!
It’s only losing control if the US loses the will to keep depleting Iran’s puny capabilities over time. The idea that they can win this war with small amounts of drones and missiles should be laughable.
Depends on if we decide to send troops, but the Pentagon is asking for $200 billion. Wildly dangerous for soldiers and political careers.
They likely will win this war with just a small number of drones and missiles. They have the ability for mutually assured destruction. We can bomb Iran forever. They can easily light the oil fields on fire and blow up the desalination plants. We will not be able to open the strait. Just geography.
Obviously we could, it’s just whether we have the will.
It is informative to consider the impact the Houthi had and the difficulties in dealing with that; compared with significantly greater capabilities of Iran (Houthi sponsors and suppliers) and the geographical aspects of the sea transit.
Absolutely right. One of the future escalation points is likely the Houthi’s closing Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea. That would choke off a large amount of Saudi‘s 7m bypass pipeline.
I don’t mean we can’t land troops for a short period. I mean we cannot force the strait open. We cannot make it safe enough for commercial traffic. Governments could requisition ships and staff them with navy personnel, but that’s a suicide mission.
Are you saying, and this seems plausible, that even very sporadic drone and missile attacks are enough to close the strait and that disrupting them would essentially require a takeover of the entire country?
That’s exactly what I’m saying. We cannot make it safe enough for private commerce. We are fighting a military war. They are fighting an economic war. I should also say that the entire infrastructure of the Middle East is probably the most vulnerable in the world. Iran needs very little to wreck all of it.
And once the desalination plants on the Saudi/ UAE/ Bahrain etc sides go, those places are uninhabitable in weeks. People should think about that ahead of “bomb Iran to the Stone Age” - if that point is reached, what does a theocracy that believes in the ultimate clash of sect and civilisations have to lose? I suspect the whole assassination ploy has already changed thinking in many places. Certainly, if the Iranian regime survives, I’d not give long odds on multiple politicians in the West making it to retirement.
Correct. You also need to consider that insurers won’t cover if a ship gets hit under these circumstances.
Tell that to the Russians
Nothing comprable about that conflict.
How did puny Taliban in Afghanistan win the war? How did Vietnam, with puny capabilities, win that war?
Pots and kettles…
Something positive is going to happen, because markets will start rallying next week.
Worth remembering that in Vietnam the VC didn’t win a single battle but won the war. Also that Iran has been preparing for this asymmetric warfare for 45 years or more.
Good discussion.
Trump lost the war already. Non of the initial objectives will be achieved.
And the US can not allow for a major global gas and oil crisis to happen.
Trump repeated all mistakes Putin did 2022,
detailed list below
https://tilmaneichstdt.substack.com/p/trump-lost-the-warbut-who-will-tell?r=3en3nm&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=title
“In much the same way Egypt was the last country Britain faced as a superpower, so too do I think Iran will be the last one we face as number one.”
I was able to get an essay from a drone operator at Holloman about the present state of things (of course, more a meditation than actual policy details.)
https://nathankyoung.substack.com/p/finding-remote-work-as-a-drone-operator?r=2kp7ol
It seems that from the start that US and Israeli objectives are quite different.
The USA wanted to cow the regime and give it a bloody nose, whereas Israel is intent on causing as much damage as it possibly can. There was already a strong suggestion that Israel had precipitated the start of hostilities and their willingness to target oil infrastructure, civil residential areas, ancient monuments and cities points to some very ugly incidents to come.
The Israelis consider the situation existential. They are probably right. The problem is either they get rid of Iran or they accelerated the existential moment.
Seriously? This screed sounds more like wishful thinking than actual reality or analysis.
Dude, the president of Iran wants to quit. There is no one left except the IRGC and the basji who are being decimated daily through tips called in by ordinary Iranians. The supreme ayatollah is MIA with the only proof of life being a picture stuck on a cardboard box. The “fortified” weaponry along the coast was bunker busted all to hell.
But hey, this mark urban is not only a journalist, he’s an editor. Some chops there.
Oh and remember how two loooong days ago, the Europeans said no, nein, non to helping open the strait of Hormuz which was closed down mostly because of the English insurance companies? Not our war. Not our concern.
Well two looooong days later comes this.
Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan said on March 19 that they are prepared to help ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping lane blocked by Iran that U.S. President Donald Trump has asked allies to assist with opening.
I wonder why. Oh, could it be their NATO freebies from the US might be slipping away? Oh Maybe it’s because they stand to need oil from that area while the US is energy Self reliant?
Do tell us Mr journalist editor.
I'm not sure you should be accusing anyone else of 'wishful thinking' while posting such nonsense.
We have seen from Serbia to Afghanistan via Iraq and Somalia that an air campaign alone simply cannot flush out a deeply embedded regime and worse, it tends embed them even deeper and make repression of the population easier.
Did you not read the screed of this journo? No real facts, just opinions and of course putting the worst possible slant on things.
But you Brits enjoy your no oil and no NATO because of your weenie attitudes.
I'm sorry your feelings got hurt. MAGA!!
The USA is not self reliant you bozo.
Actual UK position is as follows
“We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict. We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves. We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs.
Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries. We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security.”
Thoughts on the Marine Expeditionary Force currently en-route to the region?
It’ll be lucky to make it through Hormuz, then it’ll be sitting in a lake (the Gulf) that is a killing ground (cf the Russian Black Sea fleet) and, if it manages to reach Kharg, it’ll be offloading marines onto an island/ beachhead that will be under continuous observation and well within a kill zone. Oh, and supply lines will be pretty tricksy as well.
The islands on the North side of the Strait sound more possible, but they will also be a potential bloodbath on the ground. Bear in mind, in both cases, you need to get the landing ships close enough to get the troops ashore. Paratroops ahead of time can help suppress but that’s very risky in real set piece wars where ground resistance exists - see Crete in WWII for the Germans, Operation Market Garden (“Bridge Too Far”) for the Allies in WWII and Hostomel for the Russians just recently - and the resistance there was ad hoc, and pretty light weight.