Rue Britannia

The parlous state of the Royal Navy

HMS Astute arriving in Devonport earlier this month for decommissioning

Barring countries defeated in war or that ceased to exist, was there ever such a steep decline in naval power as Britain’s since the Cold War? Work by open source analysts suggests that this week the UK has had a single hunter killer submarine, seven escorts (frigates or destroyers) and two auxiliaries available for operations worldwide.

Back in 1991 there were 46 escorts, of which around 35 were available for action and 21 hunter killer and diesel submarines of which a dozen or so would be available at any one time. The deployable fleet was more than four times the size of today’s

Rewind a little further, to the 1982 Falklands War, and the Royal Navy sent two carriers, commando assault ships, 34 frigates and destroyers to fight in the South Atlantic. You have to look back to early 1944 for the date when the US Navy surpassed Britain’s fleet as the biggest in the world.

Given the fractious nature of defence debate I had better get my caveats in quickly. The Army and Royal Air Force have also fallen a long way in terms of deployable forces.

Like the Royal Navy they have also allowed numerous ‘capability gaps’ (things they used to do but cannot currently) to emerge. Just two examples: the RAF has no airborne early warning planes at the moment, and the Army gave most of its field artillery to Ukraine.

As with those last two cases, there are plans afoot for the Royal Navy to remedy the situation. And from their perspective the direction of travel is looking pretty good – both the recent Strategic Defence Review and the national security strategy emphasise the prime importance of naval power.

So arguably this is a case of the darkest hour being just before dawn but my word what a mess! The situation makes a mockery of claims to be a ‘Tier 1’ defence power, ready for war with other states.

But, but “aircraft carriers” you say? Certainly a great deal has been sacrificed in order to operate these two ships at the same time. There have been many criticisms, including that we would need other countries to escort them in war, and that the number of embarked F-35Bs is too small. For my money the key problem is that the whole enterprise has failed to deliver a ‘carrier strike’ capability with anything more than gravity bombs – the UK is still years away from having missiles its F-35s could use to attack well defended land targets.

Add to the shrinking size of the fleet its low stocks of weapons needed in any battle with peer adversaries, things like torpedoes or anti-ship missiles. Then let’s not forget the numbers of qualified matelots leaving, with trades like engineers particularly hard hit.

The work done by an unassuming social media user @Britsky lays the state of the fleet out in painful detail. He relies on open source methods such as satellite photos of laid up ships or sightings of others putting to sea in order to compile regular updates on the active navy. Nobody from the Ministry of Defence questions his charts.

The statistics for the Astute class nuclear powered submarine are particularly bad. It’s a £12bn project vital to the security of an island nation and a good example of the terrible value for money that the British taxpayer often gets on defence.

Now the lead boat, Astute, has gone in for a refit there is just one available for service. Each of the three others has not been to sea for between two and three years. Because of this we have reached the point where the Royal Navy’s ‘submarine service’ consists of two available boats – the single operational hunter killer, the other being the one carrying Trident missiles, which is dedicated to that specific mission.

Protection of the vessel carrying those nuclear weapons from Russian subs trying to tail it has historically been a key priority for the RN’s hunter-killers, but it’s not possible at the moment. HMS Anson, the hunter killer working, is far away escorting the aircraft carrier deployment to the Far East.

So the navy is failing in a basic mission. As for the Trident boats, problems there mean they are “hanging on by their fingertips” to keep one boat at sea all the time, arguably the most important task the British armed forces have.

There are hopes that delivery of the last two boats in the Astute class and the repair of ship lifts required for deep maintenance will improve the situation in the medium term. So a force of two or, at times, three hunter-killers may be available by the end of the decade.

In the longer term the government would like to build ‘up to twelve’ of a new class. But this project, in partnership with the US and Australia, is looking unsteady at the moment (the Pentagon is questioning its role) and the government’s ability to finance defence funding increases beyond the current three year spending period is unclear.

There are schemes also for the frigate and destroyer force to be rebuilt with capable new vessels. But as with the Astutes it’s not just a matter of hull numbers; rather the ability to crew and sustain them must also be greatly improved.

Right now it’s a good day when two of the navy’s six Type 45 destroyers are at sea. Of the others one has been out of action for a year, another for two, and HMS Daring hasn’t left harbour these last eight years.

If there is a silver lining to this slump in the deployable fleet it is at least that it eases some of the issues the Royal Navy has in crewing. A force of twelve hunter killers and four Trident missile submarines would be challenging to say the least.

It is the shortage of qualified people that has proven one of the big problems for the Royal Fleet Auxiliary who operate the navy’s tankers and other supply vessels. Here too there is a sorry saga of ‘capability gaps’ being left and the RFA now has just one working tanker with the carrier deployment with another left in home waters.

In a typically British way, the responsibility for the shrinking fleet is diffuse and complex. It ranges from contractor issues to those of support, crewing, and management.

If ministers were of a mind that heads should roll – they don’t seem to be – the situation is rendered even more awkward by the recent dismissal of the First Sea Lord for having an affair with another officer.

It’s quite possible the current situation will turn out to have been a nadir. Certainly there will be more money, whether that’s for building new ships, paying key trades more, or re-filling missile magazines. And in terms of fighting readiness, the proportion of the fleet able to take to sea at short notice, surely the only way is up?